All Entries Tagged With: "Adaptation"
4 Traits of the Perfect Trader
November 3, 2011 at 9:48 am
Maybe ‘perfect’ isn’t the right word. We can strive for it, but we’ll all fall short of it given enough time. Greatness, though…that’s attainable. But what does it take to become a great trader?
Well, I’m still working toward it myself, and maybe you are too, but we can agree it’s a combination of things. It’s having the ability to walk the line between two sometimes contradicting attitudes or beliefs. Here are a few of those, and I’d love to hear your thoughts on it if you have others to add to the list.
Great traders blend:
A ‘Just Go With It’ Attitude with a ‘Question Everything’ Mindset. What do I mean by that? Well, traders can be a skeptical bunch, but the best traders still act on what they see. A market move might be difficult to trust, but it’s underway and it’s happening with or without you. Traders know they can exit right away if it doesn’t work out, because after all, isn’t that why we trade rather than invest? I recently saw a comment regarding a “real bull market” by a self-proclaimed trader. I find it silly that a trader actually cares. Real traders don’t mind if the moves last or not, they just go with it and adapt along the way.
Flexibility with Structure. Great traders have a game plan in place, which gives them structure or a framework of rules to guide them in the right direction and help them avoid trouble. But they’re also very flexible in how they implement their game plan. They may not deviate from their discipline, but they can shift gears quickly when conditions call for a momentum-based tape or some fade trades when prices are range-bound.
Confidence with Respect for the Market. This is a tough one and in my experience, never completely mastered. Great traders understand risk, and they know the market can take their hard-won capital quickly if they don’t defer to the price action when their timing is off. However, they aren’t afraid to participate, so when they see what they like, they execute with confidence. This might be among the hardest things to get a grip on for a developing trader.
Science with Art. Trading is definitely a science to some (quants, that’s you!), and it’s an art form to others (tape readers, holla!). Some traders develop their own discretionary system whereby they know exactly what they’re looking for but weigh a number of factors before executing. That might mean taking into consideration if the market’s fast or slow, or if there’s a trend or indecision, or how a run ahead of scheduled news might prompt a reversal. Great traders develop a feel (art) through their experience, helping them identify better when to implement the proper strategy (science).
Where do you fit into the mix? Are you out of balance in one or more of these areas? What can you start improving on today?
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Follow TheStockBandit on Twitter or get our free newsletter to keep up!
Contrarian View
October 5, 2011 at 8:03 am
Just for fun, let’s look at both sides of this market, pretending there are actual bulls out there. (All kidding aside, there are, even if they’ve been M.I.A. of late).
This market has been plenty heavy of late. The big moves I’ve caught recently have all been on the short side, and bearish consolidations abound in the charts. Simultaneously, bullish setups are few and far between, to say the very least.
But let’s look at the bullish case right now. If I’m leaving anything out, please share it in the comments, but here are a few things to consider regarding those who are counting on a lasting turnaround:
- Nowhere else to put cash right now. This is true, and a biggie. With the bond bubble keeping money managers quite leery, and precious metals already correcting sharply from their recent highs (have you seen gold?), the so-called “safe havens” haven’t been immune to the selling either. Equities are still seen as the place to be going forward.
- Multiples are contracting, value players getting more interested. The biggest difference between a technician and the fundamentalist is how momentum is viewed. Fundies look at low prices as entry opportunities, whereas technicians look at them as downtrends which may continue. These days, the value players are seeing better numbers, which may get more of them involved.
- EVERYONE seems to be sitting on considerable cash piles right now. If this market catches a bid, that cash is tremendous potential fuel for a lasting rally. As prevalent as fear has been on the way down, it will also be relevant on the way back up — who wants to miss the big rally? Nobody who runs money, I can assure you. Underperformance is worse than losing money (sadly) in the world of portfolio managers, so you can fully expect cash to come off the sidelines quickly when signs of stability finally emerge.
The bear is still alive and well, with fresh 52-week lows being made Tuesday in every index. Nonetheless, it’s always wise to look at the other side of the trade. It’s responsible, and it either lets you keep defending your stance or it presents reasons to shift (which the best traders are always willing to do).
Keep an open mind, nothing is ever out of the question in this market.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Follow TheStockBandit on Twitter or get our free newsletter to keep up!
What if it Gets Worse?
August 12, 2011 at 9:02 am
It might.
What’s your plan if it does?
Over at the premium site, we went to cash on July 25th. Check your charts and you’ll see that was a minor decline day (the first of 7 straight losses in the S&P 50) ahead of all this mess we’ve seen since then. Coincidence? No. Did I see this meltdown coming? Not exactly.
What happened was that several positions had warranted tighter stops, and when the market began to turn lower (it literally began the 17% down move on that day), we were naturally taken out of those trades.
We’ve been in cash ever since, avoiding the crash. Can’t even describe the freedom that brings, psychologically right now and from a capital availability standpoint going forward.
Being the last to know is an uncomfortable place to be, no doubt about it, but clearly there were a TON of people who were late to the selling party. They didn’t recognize the potential for a lower high back on July 25th like we did. They didn’t realize the importance of key index levels getting undercut ignored time after time in the weeks since then.
Those folks are in big pain, and honestly, many of them will never learn how to avoid this from happening again. Will you?
Decisions, Decisions
You see, regardless of what happens next, regardless of whether you get bailed out of poor trades or have to eat the losses, you have a choice in how you’ll respond.
Maybe you’ll turn bitter like those who got kicked during the bear market of 2000-2002 or the one from 2007-2009. Many of them will never return to stocks. Maybe you’ll be spooked away for a little while, and you’ll regain confidence after you see another big run higher. (Not that that’s ideal).
Or…maybe you’ll do the right thing and take what you can learn from this experience. I’ve had to do that before, and I’m still in the game – still able to participate and profit. I’m glad I stuck it out.
If you’re passionate about trading and you want to improve, you can’t just hope it happens on its own. You have to work for it, you have to dig in and get your hands dirty. Study your moves, your mistakes, and your successes. Study those who have done well over time or who didn’t get crushed in the decline.
Commit to greatness, as only then can you come up with an adjustable game plan going forward. You’ll need it – especially if it gets worse.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Sitting Still
August 10, 2011 at 8:34 am
July 2, 1982 was a special day for Larry Walters. That’s the day the truck driver strapped 45 helium-filled weather balloons to a patio chair armed with a six pack, sandwiches, a camera, and a pellet gun to pop the balloons.
His intention was to go up and look around, but he quickly found himself terrified, having dropped his pellet gun, and over 15,000 feet in the sky in the primary approach path for Long Beach Airport.
When asked why he did it, he simply replied “A man can’t just sit around.”
Lawnchair Larry Wasn’t a Trader
There are multiple occasions when sitting still is the right thing to do in trading.
Sitting still with regard to open positions that are working is definitely a time to be less active. For instance, most of us are familiar with the quote attributed to legendary trader Jesse Livermore:
“It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!”
Right now, we’re seeing yet another example of a time when sitting still is a worthwhile approach for traders having a timeframe outside of a couple hours. Volatility is extreme, indecision is running high, and prices are ripping back and forth ’round the clock.
Stated otherwise, it’s really hard to manage risk effectively in a tape like this. It’s a scalper’s dream, but if that’s not you, this is a time to sit still. Let the dust settle, and be patient. Big opportunities are going to result from this.
Do you just head for the couch and flip on the TV with a bag of Cheetos? No!
Work on your game. Clean out your watch lists. Study your trades. Read a great trading book. Get inspired for greatness. Practice Winning. Do anything that will make you better. But don’t just sit around.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Embracing Market Changes
August 5, 2011 at 7:15 am
The market is ever-changing, both in what it fixates on and in how it moves. At times it’s earnings, at other times it’s politics, and still other times it’s the economy. Sometimes it sprints, sometimes it crawls, and sometimes it jumps back and forth across the same line to get nowhere.
As traders, it’s this constant change which actually provides us with serious opportunity. The long-term buy-and-hope type doesn’t have a different approach for profiting from a momentum market vs. a sharp correction. You as a trader do, so embrace that!
When it’s time to adapt, be willing to do it. The same old patterns might not work, so at times you’ll need to modify what you’re looking for and go with something a little different. Experience will teach you this, but right alongside that is your ongoing willingness to listen to the market and identify what’s working.
I want you to check out this post from the archives where I talk about Profiting From Market Changes – you’ll learn from it.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Pro’s Are Patient
July 18, 2011 at 9:11 am
The British Open is my favorite major to watch. It requires so much of the players, from execution to mental toughness to using their imagination to get the ball in the hole. Plus, it happens in July when it’s 147 degrees here in Texas, and I like to disappear into the home theater where it’s cool and dark and watch the guys wearing sweaters as they fight the sideways rain squalls!
In watching yesterday’s final round, the leaders were each asked during their pre-round prep what the most important element would be for their game in the final round. Without exception, they all said the same thing: Patience.
Experience taught them that. Eventual winner Darren Clarke was quick to admit he’s not normally a patient person, yet that was his focus as he headed out to try to claim his first major title.
A little gray hair goes a long way.
Had it been an interview with amateur leaders of the local club championship, the answers given may have been along the lines of “I need to make a lot of birdies.” And while that may be true, it’s not the priority of a pro when conditions are less than ideal.
True Confidence
Patience is not my strongest suit. I’m aware of it though, and therefore continue to keep impatience in check. I have to work on it. Self-honesty is important though, so I can’t ignore the occasions where impatience costs me opportunity, and those in turn serve as reminders to wait for the best opportunities to come along.
Through my premium service, I encounter a lot of traders who are overly anxious. Impatient doesn’t even begin to describe them. They’re willing to throw caution to the wind just for the thrill of being in something.
Or to avoid looking scared.
I think they fear it’s a show of cowardice if they sit on the bench for a little while. Ironically though, the biggest sign of confidence that you know what you’re doing is having the guts to sit on your hands when you don’t see what you like. You don’t chase the wind – you have a plan, and you execute it when the time is right.
Instead of taking that approach, these highly impatient traders don’t realize the primary importance of preserving capital and the secondary aim of turning a profit. Instead, they want to be highly active every day, and it’s as though they’re missing out if they exercise some caution. I don’t mind telling them that my service isn’t the right fit for those who feel the continual need to be in something.
Wait For It
The fact of the matter is that there are times when the sidelines are the best place to be. Just like the British Open leaders identified the greatest virtue of the day to be patience in the face of harsh weather conditions and tremendous pressure, you as a trader have to recognize when patience is the best course of action for you.
You’re still agile enough to take action should conditions present an opportunity, so it’s not as though you’re immobilized or stuck like a buy-and-hope investor type. But when the market is overly sensitive to the news flow, we’re getting huge gaps on nearly a daily basis, reversals are happening frequently, and the setups are sparse, the best course of action is to take very little to no action.
We all know the oft-used quote from Jim Rodgers, but it’s this kind of attitude I’m referring to…
“I just wait until there is money lying on the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime. Even people who lose money in the market say, ‘I just lost my money, now I have to do something to make it back.’ No you don`t. You should sit there until you find something.”
If you’re predisposed to trading the long side, then wait for market weakness to dissipate before committing capital. If you like the short side and we’re seeing relentless rallies, the only thing you’re missing out on by not trading is pain. Recognize that and embrace the option of doing nothing when what you see doesn’t fit your skill set.
Professionals know there are times to lay low and wait for the best opportunities, but amateurs tend to force the issue out of impatience. Which would you rather be?
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Tricky Times
July 1, 2011 at 11:08 am
I’ll begin this post with a plain and simple statement that is always true, including now: the market is tricky. It is never easy, and anyone who tells you it is easy is either lying or an ignoramus.
With that said, if you’ve struggled of late, you have company. Traders of many timeframes have found these past several weeks to be quite challenging. During the past 6 weeks, here are a few phases we’ve witnessed:
Swift move lower. June kicked off with total abandonment of stocks as the indexes shed several percentage points in the opening days of the month. It was flat-out hard to get on board if you missed the initial turn. It rewarded chasing.
Whippy trading range. Following the initial slide, the market settled into a trading range marked by volatile shifts of direction and frequent reversals. It offered zero follow through. Chasing rallies or selloffs resulted in immediate pain as prices turned on a dime to revert back to the other end of the range. It rewarded fade trades.
Aggressive ascent. After a selloff and indecision, in recent days we’ve seen the market ramp relentlessly higher with upside gaps and rips inviting bulls off the sidelines while forcing bears to cover their shorts. Again, chasing has been rewarded.
Chasing strength or weakness isn’t inherently wrong, and you can make fast money if you’re good at it. Likewise, fade trading within ranges isn’t wrong either, so long as you know what you’re doing and you stick with your discipline. But for the trend-following trader who prefers to see stocks run, base, then run again, this market has offered little for you. It has been tougher sledding of late, regardless of whether you’re a bull or a bear, a momentum trader or a continuation player, a day trader or a swing trader. It has been a mess, so if you’ve struggled, that’s part of the reason.
Here’s a look at SPY showing the three phases of the past 6 weeks:
Good News
There is good news.
First, from a technical standpoint we know that the further this rally carries, the more likely the March & June lows are to hold. It just gives the market more breathing room for the next pullback (and we will see one).
Second, conditions are always changing. Just as in recent weeks we’ve seen nonstop selling, complete indecision, and then aggressive buying, going forward we’ll see a variety of conditions as well. That’s good, because it means at some point your ideal trading environment is going to arrive again. But you’ve gotta be ready for it. You can’t have your head down and be busy bemoaning the fact that you’ve missed a couple of moves.
Finally, this is a reminder to step up your game. It’s an opportunity for growth – a wake-up call. Missing out is only partly the market’s fault – the rest is in your hands. Learn some new methods, learn to assess conditions better, and understand which strategies are best suited for the environment you’re facing. Don’t be stagnant, or else you’re going to continue to find frustration anytime the market doesn’t cater to your current skills. Build your skills and become a more complete trader.
Attitude Matters
At all times you can complain and look back and wish you had seen a move coming or had the courage to join the momentum crowd. That’s always something you can choose to do, but honestly, it’s not going to help you. That’s not a winning attitude.
But take heart if you’ve struggled lately. Things will smooth out and when they do, you’ll have experienced a few more market moves to file away in the mental vault – ideally to serve you again later – and that means you’ll more readily identify opportunities you used to miss out on.
Stay on your toes, the market gives nothing away.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
