All Entries Tagged With: "Risk"
Succeed by Not Failing
January 13, 2011 at 12:53 pm
Too many traders think a winning trade is a good trade, and a losing trade is a bad trade…a failure. I disagree.
The result of a trade is either a profit or a loss, but not a success or a failure. Good trades can end up being losses, and poor trades can sometimes result in a profit. For example, jumping in front of a big move on a whim in hopes of getting lucky timing a reversal is a poor trade, but it may still make you money. Good luck repeating that over time.
So, rather than focus on losing trades as the definition for ‘failure’ in trading, let’s take a look at 3 common ways traders fail:
To fail in trading is to not have a plan. Failing to plan is planning to fail, according to John Wooden, and he knew a thing or two about success. Great traders know what they’re doing when they go to execute an order. They have an expectation for the trade, a reason behind it, and an exit strategy which they will absolutely follow. Even beyond a per-trade basis, you should have a plan in place for your style, your goals, and when you’ll be cautious. Plan for dull phases in the market, plan for volatility, and plan which strategies you’ll employ and when.
To fail in trading is to abort your plan for something beyond your current ability. I’ve made this mistake many times, and I’ve witnessed it in others. It usually happens something like this… Consistent money has been made, confidence has grown, but greed sets in. Rather than increasing your size incrementally, you double it overnight and start adding new plays to your repertoire. Not a good combination. You lose money, you lose confidence, and now you’re unsure of what to do next. Stick with what you know. If your buddy makes a certain play look easy but you struggle with it, learn it slowly – don’t try to make your week with it on the first shot. Keep growing, but don’t rush your development.
To fail in trading is to have an inconsistent process. A good golf swing is one which repeats (doesn’t matter what it looks like — ex: Jim Furyk). If you aren’t repeating your process over time, how do you know if it really works? Suppose you focus on news today, charts tomorrow, and your favorite chat room the next day…where will your consistency come from? This also happens when you show up on Monday morning with a revised strategy, give it a day to prove itself, then move on to whatever method you think you should try next on Tuesday. It’s throwing the proverbial spaghetti against the wall to see what sticks, and that’s no way to grow as a trader. Start simple, add a little to your work load as you get more efficient, but be consistent with what you do day in and day out – at least until you can single out certain areas which need adjustment.
Avoid failure as a trader by taking action only when you have a game plan, and only when you realize the risk you’re putting on. Avoid failure as a trader by abiding by your stops, which pertains to each trade as well as your daily, weekly, or monthly loss limits. Walk away when you’re wrong, and place your ego aside. Those who fail to submit to the market are only here for a little while.
Choose to stick around…only those who stay in the game will be ready to capitalize on the best periods of opportunity when they arrive.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
When Goals Impede Progress
December 30, 2010 at 11:10 am
Like it or not, it’s that time of year where goals enter the picture again. This is of course a time for family, gifts and bowl games, but it’s also a time when each of us are compelled to take a look back and a look forward.
Reaching the finish line at the end of the year leads us to consider how things went, and most all of us know whether we exceeded or fell short of the goals we set a year ago. In turn, we evaluate where we are and take a good hard look at where we want to be a year from now.
Goals have some excellent qualities and they serve a real purpose when used correctly. They can make us think bigger and cause us to grow. They can drive us to consistently work toward an objective, helping to bring purpose to our daily activities. And goals can boost our confidence when we achieve them, helping us to realize that we’re capable of striving for higher levels. Goals are great, and I’m a goal-setter. I’ve discussed goals here numerous times over the years, but there’s one take on goals I’ve never before mentioned…
Goals aren’t always good, and they can actually hold us back when they’re set in the wrong manner or approached in the wrong way.
What Bad ‘Goals’ Look Like
As an example, years ago I would periodically update the wallpaper on my PC’s desktop with a new dream car that I’d want to go after with my trading profits. Inevitably, my trading would go almost instantly in the toilet! The new ‘goal’ was a distraction to me from what I should have had my focus on, which was the market action…not something I wanted to buy with my trading profits. (Realizing this, I’ve since kept pictures of my family as my desktop wallpaper!) My goals now involve processes I need to go through for good trading, rather than cars or destinations (duh). First things first!
3 Ways Goals Can Stunt Growth:
1. If goals are too high, we sometimes force trades in an effort to reach them. Lofty goals are good, but they can’t lead you to take on outsized risks or overstep your bounds in terms of risk. Set goals that will require growth on your part and get you outside your comfort zone, but which are still attainable for your style of trading, account size, and risk tolerance.
2. If goals aren’t practical, we may prematurely dismiss hope for achieving them. I’m not referring to quitting, I’m talking about not pushing oneself the right way. Suppose you have a profit goal for the month and you’re down to the final week and miles away from your goal. It’s easy to dismiss that goal and wait for the next month to come around, yet there’s opportunity you’d be missing out on now if you did that. Grow your account every chance possible, even if you’re lagging on a goal.
3. If goals are distracting, they don’t help us. Like the car example above, my ‘goal’ was merely an aspiration and therefore not something that directed the focus of my trading. Instead, it detracted from it, and took me farther from where I’d have been without it. Make your goals process-oriented, and the results will take care of themselves.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
Options vs. Common Stock
November 17, 2010 at 11:13 am
Traders face many hard decisions every day…buy or sell, add or lighten, stand aside or get involved. Among them is the choice between trading options or common stock.
There are no doubt benefits and shortcomings of both choices, as everything literally is a trade-off.
Common is usually much more liquid, it can be traded in the after hours or premarket, and it’s by definition 100% exposure to the company. However, it is more capital-intensive since it’s not a leveraged position, which means less room for other positions in an account. Common alone is also going to carry with it greater dollar risk, as a major headline can bring tremendous gap potential.
Options are leveraged, they offer lots of versatility and possibilities (speculation, hedging, income, etc.), and they are less capital-intensive. However, liquidity is often inferior compared to common, they can’t be traded as many hours of the day as stock, and they offer only fractional exposure to the underlying stock.
The Case for Options
Options can be an excellent vehicle for trading, provided the situation is well-suited to them. The biggest 3 considerations for options are (1) the time expectation for the trade, (2) the liquidity of the options being traded, and (3) the risk involved in the trade. Let’s break those down.
Timeframe
First things first… The time you expect to be in the play is important because options will carry a bid/ask spread often times up to maybe .10-15 cents. For a stock that’s not a huge deal, but for an option which might only be trading at say $2 or lower, that’s a big percentage if you pay the spread both ways (market order getting in & out). So if you’re looking at being in a trade for at least a couple of days, that’s usually much better for an options trade than if you’re just looking to scalp it over the next half hour.
Liquidity
Second, there are quite a few stocks which have high trading volume, but for whatever reason their options are just not heavily traded. For any trade I take, whether a stock or an option, I want to feel confident there will be buyers when I go to sell, and sellers when I go to buy. Sufficient liquidity is a requirement for any trade, whether in options or common. So taking a look at the open interest, the volume, and the bid/ask spread is important in gauging the liquidity of the options. When in doubt, take a look at the highly liquid options like QQQQ, SPY, or mega-cap stocks like MSFT or INTC. That will help you get a feel for how tight the market is in the options you’re considering. You don’t ever want to be the ‘big player’ in any contract.
Risk
Third, limited risk is an advantage which options carry, such as buying put options vs. being short stock. Risk is defined with the puts, and theoretically unlimited with the short stock. Options are a great choice in particular when the stock has the potential to gap big, whether due to news coming out or simply based upon recent price history of the stock. Always consider the risk involved when weighing options vs. common, as that’s an important element of the decision-making process.
Finally, here are a few occasions to consider options rather than the common shares:
1. In front of big news (earnings, conference calls, or anything else scheduled).
2. When limited on capital (the leverage of options helps offset a limited amount of funds).
3. When the stock moves are too shaky to sit through (when a really wide stop is necessary).
4. Trade timeframe is between a couple days and a few weeks.
** If you’ve got something else to add, please share it in the comments.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
Trading Up from Mediocre to Great
November 8, 2010 at 12:28 pm
Can you imagine working hard for insignificant results? Or setting your standards so low that you need not put forth effort in order to attain your goals? Never, right?
A competitive drive pushes many traders from the inside, causing them to take on risks others wouldn’t accept. They shun the security of a regular job, opting instead to speculate in an arena filled with financial danger but unlimited upside potential. Long hours are often recorded in an attempt to gain an edge. Tedious tasks like sifting through hundreds of charts nightly, religiously reviewing results, or poring over statistics of trades past are done with the sole purpose of improvement by traders who are hungry for success.
In other words, they want it.
Those kinds of things are what it takes to get better in trading, and many are willing to pay the price. Yet far too often – unfortunately – some traders settle for less.
I’ve encountered many of them. They say things like “I’m not really trading right now because I’m waiting for XYZ to bounce back and let me out of a pretty big paper loss I’m facing.”
What’s interesting is that the ‘paper loss’ they’re referring to is quite real. Even more noteworthy is what they fail to see, which is that other trades could put them back on the right track and actually get them turning a profit again – if they’d free up their account to allow themselves to actually take those trades. Sadly, they’re just unwilling to turn loose of a mistake, so they cling to hope and wait for a miracle.
Are you one of them?
Trading Up
Often times on the road, I’m looking for an opening in the left lane to get around that slow lady ahead of me who is too busy talking on the phone to go (at least) the speed limit. In the mall, I’m amazed at how many people walk aimlessly, without a clue, as if there’s no purpose or destination to move towards. Yes, I am a bit impatient, but the point I’m making here is that it’s a habit I’m in of continually looking for ways to improve my situation.
That’s particularly true in my trading. I don’t mind putting on risk, and I realize plenty of trades will fail. What’s most important to me is to monitor how those trades move and how the stocks are behaving.
Let me be clear… It’s unrealistic to think I can foresee the moves before they happen, but it’s not difficult to recognize price action that’s outside the recent norm. And that is the key.
Studying the price action closely allows you to identify when outlier moves begin to occur, and subsequently when an exit needs to be made.
Always Think In Terms of Gain
We just sold our house. The real estate market is still soft, and for about two months we had a lot of showings but no sale. The price was too high, and we had to come off the price a bit in order to sell the house. But we’re upsizing, so what we had to concede on the last house we more than made up in the new house.
Once I thought of a price reduction in those terms, it became a no-brainer. It was less personal. Understanding that giving up $1 here might mean I save $1.50 on the next home (because it’s larger and higher-priced), logic dictated that I think in terms of what I’d gain on the other side, not solely what I’d be giving up.
Why doesn’t everyone trade this way? Why not dump an average name for a better one – one that shows more promise, more potential? Why not put in the work to get to the next level and leave mediocre results in your rearview mirror?
Make it a habit to think this way, especially if you’re gunning for improvement. OR…be complacent and stagnate, because that’s the only other option.
What has helped you learn to dump losing trades in favor of new names with better potential? Share your thoughts in the comments…
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
Uptrend Aside, Trading Scene Set to Improve
November 1, 2010 at 10:45 am
August seems so long ago, doesn’t it? Stocks had rebounded from their July lows, briefly, and had turned back down hard for a test. The test passed, as an important higher low was established.
From there, we all know the story of how the seasonally-weak September and October stood conventional wisdom on its head to post big gains. What’s not been spoken of much, however, is the way this 2-month rally has changed in recent weeks.
What began as a rip-roaring rise ripe with short-covering has evolved into a slower, more steady uptrend channel. The pace has cooled off a bit, while still continuing to make upward progress. In fact, new intraday highs were posted multiple times last week, despite the indecision we saw between the opening and closing bells each day. Today we’re seeing more of the same, as early strength has delivered new highs while modest profit-taking has caused the indexes to back down from their best levels.
To put it another way, the “dumb money” has had great success in recent weeks. Those who waited for strength to return before becoming confident enough to join in have been fortunate enough to chase extended markets and stocks and still profit. But for those of us who prefer to see some kind of rhythm associated with market moves, it’s been a one-way street without many ways to play the long side while still protecting the downside.
Astute traders have instead found it a bit more difficult to navigate the current environment, as anyone with an ounce of discipline has felt the uneasiness of adding long-sided exposure for overnights while simultaneously recognizing the limited opportunity of trading intraday. It has left many of us to do more scalping while waiting for more lively day-to-day price action and higher-quality bases to come along. Those bases often rely on some back-and-forth price action, which we simply haven’t seen of late.
Watch The Horizon
Any trader worth his salt knows that conditions will shift. Maybe not immediately, but eventually.
That doesn’t mean prediction is necessary, because it isn’t, but it does mean staying alert.
When trading well, keep doing what works but be on the lookout for signs the setup may be changing. When trading poorly, it’s imperative to employ some other methods which are more suitable to the conditions. At the same time, hope can be had that a shake-up in the price action will bring more opportunities.
Right now, the market is in an interesting spot. The rally has brought the spring highs into play as we’re essentially testing them in this area. That’s a logical resistance area that could prompt some selling, depending upon the news flow. The uptrend channels seen in the averages could easily be penetrated to the downside, heightening concerns of whether that’s the end of the run. The other side of the coin is that the trend is still up, and no evidence has surfaced to suggest it’s changing.
So as a trader, here’s how I’m dealing with all this. The trend is up, so I’m favoring the long side while keeping timeframes short in order to offset the risk of walking the highwire here. I’m also mindful of potential shifts which could emerge anytime. We’re in the midst of earnings season, and that could easily sour the mood. We have the November elections tomorrow and the political implications of that, which is a major event. And then mid-week we have the FOMC, and with all eyes on the economy, the attention of traders will definitely be on Wednesday’s announcement and policy statement.
We could ramp from here and take out the spring highs before a pullback begins. It’s possible. We could break the uptrend channels and see some selling accelerate as traders recognize the trend line break and move quickly to lock in profits. Several scenarios are possible, and it’s important to keep an open mind here for that very reason.
I will say this: I’m expecting volatility to pick up sooner than later, and that means more opportunities for trading multiple timeframes. That’s where the real money is made, as you can have capital working for multi-day moves while still maneuvering to catch intraday moves for profits. Look alive out there, this is no time to get lulled to sleep.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
5 Rookie Trader Mistakes & How to Avoid Them
October 4, 2010 at 8:50 am
In trading, as in life, lessons can be learned out of inspiration or desperation. It’s hard to say which is better, but I know that regret is quite a teacher.
For example, I’m in the process of buying a house right now, which will be the second for my wife and me. Eight years ago, I made several mistakes as a first-time buyer, some of which I’ve wished I could go back and change. Experience educates each of us, fortunately, and needless to say this time around (I think) I’m doing it right.
A lack of experience is responsible for many mistakes newer traders make as well. Those errors not only prove costly the first time around, but they can also ingrain some bad habits if not corrected quickly.
Over the years, I’ve been fortunate to work with hundreds of traders around the globe, of all trading styles and timeframes. And yet as diverse as these traders seem to be, a handful of common issues continue to surface. Coincidence? No. Just human nature, which the market preys upon.
So, to help you stay on the right path with your trading, let’s take a look at 5 common mistakes rookie (or struggling) traders make, and how to avoid them.
1. Adding to Losing Positions. This is a biggie, and it addresses perhaps the most common lapses in judgment among traders of all experience levels. Gartman says to “do more of what is working, and less of what isn’t working.” By definition, a losing position is not working. And unless you originally planned to scale into the trade, adding to a loss is a big no-no. Take note of your P&L, and if you’re wrong, avoid throwing good money after bad.
2. Forcing Trades Out of Boredom. Boredom is one of the biggest enemies of today’s trader, because it leads to so many bad decisions (like overtrading). Transaction costs are so low and it’s so easy to place trades that one can easily forget just how costly boredom trades can become. So if you’ve done your homework and come up with very little, place no pressure on yourself to be active. There are times where sitting tight is exactly what you should be doing, so have the courage and discipline to do nothing when that’s the case.
3. Switching Strategies By the Day. I’m all for trading with multiple strategies, and as your experience increases, your trading toolbelt will begin to fill. However, each of us during times of struggle has encountered the losing streak. That’s perhaps the biggest cause for traders to throw the proverbial spaghetti at a wall to see what sticks. While experimenting can yield some clarity, doing it in either the wrong fashion or too frequently can prove counterproductive. Get some trader training, put some strategies to work across multiple timeframes, and give them enough time to prove their effectiveness. Trying something for a day, losing money with it, and shifting quickly to something else isn’t responsible, so avoid that limited mindset.
4. Putting Everything on the Line for one ‘Idea’ Trade. I was once warned by a more-experienced trader, “don’t get any ideas!“ He was right. A longer-term thesis takes time to play out, so leave that to the fundamentalists who don’t mind tying up their capital for months on end – for better or for worse. Stick with what the price action is telling you, and determine the best opportunities to get on board for the next move. Ideas are only useful when they relate to technical discoveries, so don’t bank on guessing right for one big recovery play – it may instead prove to be the final nail in the coffin.
5. Hoping a Stock Will Recover. Each of us has been trapped by a bad trade, and we’ve wondered if sitting motionless and simply hoping to be let out of the trap is the best solution. Marty Schwartz, of Pit Bull fame, mentioned how as a soldier, he was trained to do something when under attack…either fight back or retreat, but don’t just sit there. Hope truly is a 4-letter word in the trading realm, and relying solely on hope will provide plenty of damage to your trading account. Stops are available for good reason. Game plans offer if/then scenarios to follow under the gun so that big decisions need not be made in times of stress or volatility.
Avoid making these mistakes, and your money will be much harder for the pro’s to take.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
One Intraday Setup That’s Working
September 28, 2010 at 9:38 am
In a world dominated by algo’s and machines, the astute trader can still turn a profit. It’s true, despite what many losing traders might tell you.
It takes adaptation, some ingenuity, imagination, and of course, thinking outside the box. For the creative trader though, new patterns will emerge from which profitable trades can be made.
So today, I wanted to point out to you one such example. I won’t name the stock, because it doesn’t matter, but here’s the chart from the opening 50 minutes or so:
As you can see, this stock gapped higher, ran a little more initially, and then began to roll over. The selling intensified as new lows were made on the session, and the gap began to fill before a brief period of rest set in. But that wasn’t the end of the story. Conventional day trading wisdom says this gap keeps getting filled, but only if another new low is made with a break of that intraday support.
Lately I’ve noticed this kind of setup – and you can reverse it with a downside gap if you’d like – offering some good plays. I had one finger on the trigger to short sell this one upon a break of that support, but it held just above the whole number. As the stock started to catch a bid, I went long with a very tight stop – only $0.06 from my long entry. And only 10 minutes later I was flipping out my shares for a quick $0.50 winner.
** For those wondering, that’s a reward-to-risk ratio of better than 8:1.
This setup offers two things I really like…
First, it offers very minimal, defined risk. If support (or resistance in the case of a morning gap down) gives way, I’m out quick for a small loss.
Second, it offers a great pivot area where emotion is building. The battle that took place at support was really something, and once one side began to win out (in this case the buyers), it sparked a quick move away from that level.
So, keep an eye out for this setup – it’s been a great one to trade. Gaps which only partially fill before hesitating at a level just might offer you a quick, profitable reversal play like this one.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Producer of The Bandit Broadcast
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
