Video Review of the Indexes 2-21-2010
February 21, 2010 at 1:22 pm
With only 4 days of trading last week after the Monday holiday, the bulls had to make it count – and they did. They went undefeated on the week with across-the-board gains each day, reclaiming some important levels in the process. But with light volume on the way up, the rally is not without its faults.
Add to the mix the fact that the market has become somewhat short-term stretched to the upside, and the conditions are ripening for at least a short-term pullback. As with any market move, anticipation must be met with confirmation, and as of yet we don’t have that. Nonetheless, it’s a good time to exercise some added caution on the long side as the temptation to book profits becomes more powerful for the bulls in the coming days.
As we head into a brand new week of trading, let’s examine some important levels in the indexes to keep an eye on in the days ahead. That will have the greatest influence on how individual stocks are going to move, so it’s where the trading week begins.
This clip was also posted over on the Trading Videos site (as always), and perhaps you’ve seen it there – but in case you didn’t, I wanted to put it here on the blog for you.
Let me highly suggest clicking the “HD” on the video player and then going full-screen for best quality.
Thanks for stopping by and I’ll see you here soon with more.
Until then… Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
Video Review of the Indexes 2-7-2010
February 7, 2010 at 1:30 pm
Last week proved to be an eventful one, although you wouldn’t know it from the net changes in the indexes from the prior week. What started out as a relief rally quickly turned into another nightmare selloff for the bulls, before a late surge Friday erased much of the damage. In the end, the market lost more ground and the correction continued.
Bounces are still getting sold, and that’s a reminder that the character of the market has changed in a big way over the past few weeks. The January highs now tower high above current prices, and we still have yet to see a meaningful bounce take place since the downside turn began. At some point it will arrive, but until then there’s still plenty of reason for caution in the current environment.
As we head into a brand new week of trading, let’s examine some important levels in the indexes to keep an eye on in the days ahead. That will have the greatest influence on how individual stocks are going to move, so it’s where the trading week begins.
This clip was also posted over on the Trading Videos site (as always), and perhaps you’ve seen it there – but in case you didn’t, I wanted to put it here on the blog for you.
Let me highly suggest clicking the “HD” on the video player and then going full-screen for best quality.
Thanks for stopping by and I’ll see you here soon with more.
Until then… Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
Video Review of the Indexes 1-31-2010
January 31, 2010 at 6:06 pm
Following an initial pullback from the January highs, no bounce was produced last week with the dip-buyers failing to appear. The group which has been so responsible for upside follow through since the market turned higher in March of 2009 suddenly disappeared, and stocks have been declining steadily for a couple of weeks now.
Key levels from previous months have been proving to be short-term rest stops for the indexes on the way down, offering not only some orderly price action but also a reminder to us that key levels are worth keeping an eye on.
It’s hard to argue that an important change of character is underway for this market, and the depth of this initial selloff certainly raises the likelihood of a lower high being created once a bounce kicks in. At some point, a bounce will arrive, but at the moment the short-term trend is down and that deserves our respect.
As we head into a brand new week of trading, let’s examine some important levels in the indexes to keep an eye on in the days ahead. That will have the greatest influence on how individual stocks are going to move, so it’s where the trading week begins.
This clip was also posted over on the Trading Videos site (as always), and perhaps you’ve seen it there – but in case you didn’t, I wanted to put it here on the blog for you.
Let me highly suggest clicking the “HD” on the video player and then going full-screen for best quality.
Thanks for stopping by and I’ll see you here soon with more.
Until then… Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
Video Review of the Indexes 1-24-2010
January 24, 2010 at 5:49 pm
Last week we saw the market closed on Monday, making for a holiday-shortened week of trading. That certainly didn’t translate into quiet action, as traders made every day count.
Tuesday’s upside tested resistance, but without a breakout. From there, the sellers took control, raising cash more and more aggressively as the week progressed. In the end, steep selloffs made the difference with each of the indexes giving up short-term support zones with ease.
The downside reversal reminded the dip buyers who have been so persistent for 10 months that the market’s still able to move in both directions. Whether they learn their lesson this time or not remains to be seen, but it should bring continued volatility in the weeks ahead – and that’s a good thing for traders like you and me.
As we head into a brand new week of trading, let’s examine some important levels in the indexes to keep an eye on in the days ahead. That will have the greatest influence on how individual stocks are going to move, so it’s where the trading week begins.
This clip was also posted over on the Trading Videos site (as always), and perhaps you’ve seen it there – but in case you didn’t, I wanted to put it here on the blog for you.
Let me highly suggest clicking the “HD” on the video player and then going full-screen for best quality.
Thanks for stopping by and I’ll see you here soon with more.
Until then… Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
Prepare for Anything
January 21, 2010 at 7:00 am
On several occasions in recent years, I’ve taken a spring trip with my dad and some friends to Arizona to play golf for a few days. I love the desert, and it’s fun to spend some time with the guys and make a few birdies (let’s not talk about the bogeys!).
Around Scottsdale, and particularly to the north of town, it’s quite common to see single-engine planes buzzing around the skies. Maybe it’s the great weather and silence of being on the golf course that made me notice them, but they seem to be everywhere. They’re pilots in training, and they’re starting small before they work their way up to something larger (like perhaps, something with more than 1 engine!). I respect that approach, and we’ll touch on that shortly.
But one thing that really caught my attention is that they actually shut off their engines – on purpose – over and over. What? It’s one thing to hop in that little thing with what sounds like a lawnmower motor on it, but hey, it’s no glider. Why would they do this intentionally?
They’re creating stall conditions and learning to recover. Learning to purposely manage a malfunction in a controlled environment (well, partially) helps them avoid panic should it ever happen unannounced. Eventually, they’ll become the kind of pilot I wouldn’t mind flying with.
From One Cockpit to Another
As a trader, sometimes that malfunction happens without warning. Sometimes right after an entry is made, the position rips right against you, perhaps even before you’ve had time to place a stop. Sometimes it’s an overnight trade which has unexpected or unscheduled news hit which causes the stock to gap against you, perhaps even beyond where you had intended to exit in the event of a failed trade. It’s painful and shocking, and more often than not, it results in panic for the untrained trader.
So how do you deal?
It’s almost impossible to mimic the emotions that go along with such a situation, but here are a few simple things you and I can do in order to avoid panic.
1. Expect it to happen. That doesn’t make us negative thinkers, mind you, but rather traders who are mentally prepared for anything – including the worst-case scenario. After all, if we’re prepared to face the worst, what could possibly cause us to panic? The point here is that through logical thinking as well as visualization, unexpected events and adverse moves can be mentally rehearsed to the point that when it does happen, we’re focused on the solution rather than the problem.
2. Keep a level head. By doing #1, we’re freed up to maintain our wits. Throwing a temper tantrum or freezing up entirely is only going to make it worse. The deer in the headlights stands motionless (at least here in south Texas), which means it’s up to the car to change course if something awful is to be avoided. Don’t be the deer – you can’t base your protection on hope that the stock will change course for you. Cooler heads will always prevail, so exercise self-control when you find yourself in a sticky situation and your mind will be available to strategize.
3. Expect to survive. Trusting that you’ll be alright in the long haul will help keep things in perspective, just as they should be. What might feel like a catastrophe to the inexperienced trader might be a little unsettling to you, which is something you can absolutely recover from. At the worst, it’s one bad trade out of your next 1000 trades, so consider it a spot on the windshield to look beyond rather than something worthy of doing more damage to you than it already has.
4. Never allow one trade to be too important. This of course takes into account position sizing and position risk, because the financial hit is the one that comes first. Putting on trades which are larger than they should be is nice when they work, but when they don’t, look out. Staring at a loss which is bigger than you’ve faced before will bring instant regret. Similarly, trading within one’s limits also means that no trade is ever emotionally too important. The aftermath which follows a big loss can be more emotional than financial, so walk the line carefully when choosing position size, and you’ll avoid a tailspin.
The market will dish out surprises from time to time, no doubt about it. Train yourself to expect it, and mentally rehearse some ways you’ll respond when it happens. You’ll ultimately feel as though you’ve been there, and your second reaction (following ‘oops’) will be a remedy rather than crippling anxiety and fear.
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
ANF Looking Vulnerable
January 19, 2010 at 7:25 am
Anytime I see a stock crack support and fail to reclaim it, I pay attention. Especially when it makes no effort to rebound and merely consolidates after that key breakdown.
ANF is doing this right now. Just over a week ago, it undercut an ascending channel pattern on heavy volume, offering a decisive change of direction. Last week, not only did it fail to bounce, but it consolidated in a bear pennant pattern, indicating there may be more selling yet to come.
I’m keeping a close eye on this one, as a move down at $32 out of the short-term pennant would confirm this pattern, possibly leaving the $30 area as the next stop (given that it’s a former key level in the stock).
Here’s a closer look at the chart:
Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
Video Review of the Indexes 1-18-2010
January 18, 2010 at 1:13 pm
The bulls maintained their overall control last week, although they did allow the market to slip a little. The NAZ led the downside, but no key technical breaches occurred.
We haven’t seen a meaningful pullback in some time now, but if short-term support levels get broken, it could deliver some accelerated profit-taking. Lower highs and lower lows would have to develop before the longer-term uptrends would be disturbed, so even if we do see some downside it will be important to keep things in perspective.
As we head into a brand new week of trading, let’s examine some important levels in the indexes to keep an eye on in the days ahead. That will have the greatest influence on how individual stocks are going to move, so it’s where the trading week begins.
This clip was also posted over on the Trading Videos site (as always), and perhaps you’ve seen it there – but in case you didn’t, I wanted to put it here on the blog for you.
Let me highly suggest clicking the “HD” on the video player and then going full-screen for best quality.
Thanks for stopping by and I’ll see you here soon with more.
Until then… Trade Like a Bandit!
Jeff White
Are you following me on Twitter yet?
