Archive for the 'Trading Psychology' Category

Don’t Wear Out Your Welcome

We’ve all been in trades which were treating us well, moving along in the anticipated direction as we giggled to ourselves about what we might spend the profits on….only to get slapped in the face when we get too greedy and stay too long after the move exhausts itself. It’s called wearing out your welcome, and it’s very tough on us as traders. It can easily lead to a loss of confidence, causing you to become timid with subsequent trades which you should be aggressive with. The fear of giving back gains again causes micro-management of trades, as a lack of trust begins to replace that winning swagger you once had.

Profits are the aim of our trading efforts, so it’s vital to recognize when the time comes to ring the register and pay ourselves.

Wearing out your welcome applies to a lot of arenas, so making a habit not to do it in other areas of your life can help to establish some better trading habits. For example, I was a professional golfer for a few years right out of college. A local country club allowed me access to their facility as a courtesy as long as I didn’t overstay my welcome. If they were hosting a tournament or it was a busy day with lots of members around, I slipped away and found another place to practice. Had I stayed too long, they likely would have asked me to leave, which would have been costly to me. As a result of my respect for them, we had a great relationship and they were happy to extend their facilities to me, knowing that I would not impose on the freedom of their members. All I had to do was stay aware of the conditions without getting consumed in my own activities.

Similarly, successful trading should be the same way. When you make a profitable trade and a stock meets your criteria for exit, don’t overstay your welcome! Knowing when it’s time to cash out and find another place for your trading capital is crucial to developing yourself as a profitable trader. Manage your trades well and you will end up happy. Staying too long and trying to squeeze that last drop of profit out of the trade will likely prove costly, not only in the current trade but perhaps also in your confidence going forward, depending on how much of your open profits you give back.

It’s been said that the last $0.25 can be the most expensive part of a trade, and I couldn’t agree more! So if you enter a stock for a trade, take most of your profits as a trade. Don’t say those 5 expensive words or let a trade become an investment. Always following your trading plan and resisting that urge to get greedy will let you come out ahead with both your profits and confidence intact.

Jeff White
President, The Stock Bandit, Inc.
Swing Trading & Day Trading Service
www.TheStockBandit.com

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Satisfy Your Craving For Risk

Most traders at least occasionally have to deal with the urge….the temptation….the allure of taking on more risk. Sound familiar?

Risk’s Widespread Appeal

I’ve had the good fortune of spending time and trading with quite a few traders of all types. Some trade stocks, others trade futures or options. Some of them are day trading, others are swing trading. Some of them trade part time, others trade full time. But regardless of the characteristics which define their approach, every last one of them has at some point felt this urge of which I speak.

Oh there have been some great stories along the way of big wins and losses, but every single memorable story involves risk. Great days and even downright pathetic days will all boil down to how much risk is taken, and how well it is managed. If you stop to think about it, we’re all quite lucky to have the ability to make this choice every day. Those who become highly skilled in the balancing act of taking and managing risk effectively become successful traders. Those who do not will quickly become a mere statistic.

Gambles Must Be Small

I’ll venture to say that all great traders have a respect for risk in the markets they trade, and as a result they all have a certain level of discipline which goes along with it. I’ve commented to people before when asked if day trading is a high-risk endeavor that “it could be your own little Las Vegas every day of the week if you want it to be” but that taking that path almost guarantees a brief career as a trader. Personally, I don’t want a real job!

But what if you love to take occasional risks? Can you still be a great trader? What if you just have that urge to swing for the fence sometimes? Well, I’m here to tell you that it can hurt you, unless you do it the right way.

Taking high-risk trades doesn’t have to mean the kinds of gambles which get amateur traders into trouble. Stubbornness and speculation are not the same thing. The trader who blows out his account after adding repeatedly to a losing position is very different from the trader who puts on a small position as a hunch, risking a limited amount and never putting his trading livelihood on the line. Buying a lotto ticket isn’t the same as putting your car keys into a Friday night poker pot! Rolling the dice is alright on occasion, so long as the consequences aren’t significant enough to cause any real damage.

Some traders might want to buy a small amount of a high-flyer, trade some out-of-the-money options, or dabble in some illiquid little stock while waiting for an anticipated story to play out. Maybe you can’t fight the urge to take a few shares of a stock into earnings, or to try to game a Fed move after the announcement, both of which are a complete coin-toss. Perhaps you’re able to do this right alongside your normal positions and never let these little speculations interfere with your day-to-day operations, but if you’re like me, you find them somewhat distracting as your attention moves from what you should be watching to these little speculative trades like horses in a race.

The Solution for Speculators

Never fear, there is a solution: trade multiple accounts! I’ve found this to be the ideal way to separate different types of trades, allowing me to satisfy that occasional urge to take a risk while still keeping my attention where it needs to be - on my primary trading account.

Funding a speculative or secondary account with only a fraction of what your primary trading account is funded with will keep any profits or losses at a minimum, because remember, profits isn’t the point of a secondary spec account. This account exists solely to let you trade the high-risk plays in order to scratch that itch for an occasional home-run-or-strikeout type of play. The aim of this account is to let you act on those urges without the consequences if you’re wrong. After all, these are the kinds of plays which could really wreck your main account, so keeping them separate and tiny lets you focus on what matters most - pulling consistent gains out of the market in a more methodical way than going for the long ball.

These secondary accounts can also be used to hide longer-term plays from plain view, which will come in handy on occasion. What happens if you’re short-term bearish but have some long-sided positions socked away for the long term? It’s easy under the gun to lump everything together, but separating your timeframes across accounts can be an effective way to trade both timeframes according to your plan. Secondary or spec accounts also effectively hide the number while letting your higher-risk plays fully develop.

If you haven’t considered having a primary trading account and at least one smaller trading account to satisfy your urge for that occasional added risk you love to take, give it a shot and you’ll quickly see the benefits. Have the discipline to set one up. If anything, it’ll keep your pain to a minimum when you swing for the fence and miss, while keeping you focused on the types of trades which really pay the bills.

Jeff White
President, The Stock Bandit, Inc.
Swing Trading & Day Trading Service
www.TheStockBandit.com

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How Gaps Change Motivations in the Market

With so many gaps hitting the market in recent days, it’s the perfect time to discuss them a little bit. Not only are they occurring in individual stocks as a result of earnings announcements (which is typical and expected), but we’re seeing a lot of them in the market indexes with the recent news flow adding to the volatility. Of particular note is how many of them have filled.

Before I get to the heart of this article, let’s look at an example in case you’re not quite sure what I’m talking about. Here’s a look at a 5-minute chart of the NAZ on Thursday morning, which gapped down some 40 points from Wednesday’s closing levels. It ended up rallying back up to fill the gap soon afterward, and even turned positive for the day after about 90 minutes.

NAZ_8_9_07_gap_fill.gif
(Click for full-size image, courtesy of TeleChart)

The Mechanics of a Price Gap

So how do these price gaps even come about? Well, they occur from a buildup of orders overnight which create an imbalance between buyers and sellers. Market makers and NYSE specialists have to take the opposing side of the public’s orders (they buy when you sell and vice-versa), so to offset this risk they do it at higher or lower prices, depending on the imbalance. When the public is buying en masse, market-makers will sell but at higher levels. That’s how gaps are created.

Once they’re in place, the next question is how do they get filled? Well, since many of them lately are occurring on emotional reactions to the news flow, most of the traders who would act on the news are the ones creating the gaps. After their orders build up which create the gap to begin with, there are very few traders leftover placing subsequent orders in the same direction, thereby limiting the extent of any follow through. As a result, the path of least resistance shifts to the other direction, meaning the gap now has greater potential to fill.

Psychology’s Role in Gaps

On top of the mechanics of how the gaps are created and filled, there’s also a lot of psychology at work which is adding fuel to the fire. Traders who are already holding positions in the direction of the gap are greatly tempted to take those profits, which means on a gap up that they create selling pressure as they move to book gains. The overnight windfall of “free money” motivates them to ring the register, and that only accelerates how quickly the gap may fill, especially when combined with the natural mechanics of a gap. Additionally, downside gaps are often viewed by those with cash on hand as an irresistible sale, unable to pass up the thought of buying “cheap” stocks. Their buying, along with the covering of short sellers, drives prices higher to fill the gap.

There is never a shortage of interesting dynamics at work in the market, and price gaps are a study in the psychology which can help us learn a lot about why things move the way they do. If you catch a gap in your favor, play it close to the vest and squeeze out of it whatever you can, but if it begins to fill just remember how momentum is shifting and decide quickly whether you want to battle it or not.

Jeff White
President, The Stock Bandit, Inc.
Swing Trading & Day Trading Service
www.TheStockBandit.com

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Round Numbers

Lots of traders (myself included) notice that stocks behave differently as they approach round numbers, like $20 for example. That’s probably due to many stops being set around those levels, both on the buy and sell side. Once a stock gets through the large buildup of orders at those whole numbers, they often see a nice pop because the resistance (of sellers, or of buyers on the downside) is now behind the stock and it’s now able to move more freely.

But have you noticed the same thing in your trading account? As your account nears a nice round number (whether it’s $10,000 or $3,000,000), do you notice some “resistance” in clearing those zones? I sure have.

Of course, once they are cleared, things seem to cruise along nicely again. The trades tend to keep producing, and the account balance climbs.

I finally realized why that is….it’s because as my account approaches a nice round number, my attention gravitates to that number rather than focusing as I should on my trades. I get to thinking about how a particular trade might impact “the number”, but that’s not what got me there to begin with.

Fortunately, my broker has a great tool which allows me to hide “the number” with a single click, and that helps a lot. It makes me turn my attention back to my open positions so that I can manage them the best way I know how. That’s what good trading is all about - managing each position well.

If you’re finding it difficult to get over the hump in your account as you reach a certain number or account highs, HIDE THE NUMBER! I’ll bet it helps you focus on your trades much better, and that alone should get you back on the right track in growing your trading account.

Jeff White
President, The Stock Bandit, Inc.
Swing Trading & Day Trading Service
www.TheStockBandit.com

Just Buy Something!

Huge up days in the market like today have amazing power. Ordinary investors love them, because everything they own goes up. Traders sometimes hate them though, because underperformance can be common.

It almost never fails that on days when the market makes a giant move, my friends or family will inquire about how great my day was. It isn’t always what they might think. Maybe you’ve had similar experiences. Some of the best days even come when “the market” does very little, which is funny. But back to the topic….

Days of big point gains leave underperforming traders feeling like they need to JUST BUY SOMETHING so that they can participate in the move. That’s not always the solution, because if you’re a disciplined trader there are certainly days when the stocks you look at for possible trades simply don’t fit your criteria. So if you happen to underperform on a day like today, consider a couple of concepts which may help you get beyond the frustration of “missing out.”

* Walk away. It’s a choice each of us have as traders. Just shut down the PC and get out of your chair. Some days you don’t have it, so don’t force it if that’s the case. Maybe it’s you, or maybe it’s the market, but either way the bottom line is you’re not making bank. Come back and fight another day.

* Trade ETF’s. Sure they move slower than many of the high-beta names you might prefer to trade, but they are a definite solution that allows you to participate directly in large market moves. You can leverage up to offset the slower percentage moves, plus they’re liquid as can be so that makes them easy to jump into and out of.

* Be confident in tomorrow. I’ve had some great days right after major market advances like today. It’s funny, but I don’t really trade the mega-cap Dow components like many of which were leaders today. I like to trade lots of secondary stocks, and on days like today those are often an afterthought. Often times the following day, the mega-caps will cool off but traders are still just as eager to buy something. They turn to the secondary stocks, and that’s when you can knock out some nice gains.

Trade well Friday and enjoy your weekend!

Jeff White
President, The Stock Bandit, Inc.
Swing Trading & Day Trading Service
www.TheStockBandit.com

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